Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (79%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC win on 2026-11-01?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 22¢ · $677 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$676.93
-$282.93
30.7¢ → 21.5¢
-30% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 79%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Noavg 30.6¢ | $359.61 | $252.97 | -$106.64 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 30.7¢ | $271.05 | $189.64 | -$81.41 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 30.7¢ | $189.19 | $117.79 | -$48.78 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 31¢ | $124.62 | $86.43 | -$38.19 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $33.32 | $26.84 | -$6.48 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $4.68 | $3.24 | -$1.43 | 51% 6082-5802 (11884) |
RN1CTRInvested
$359.61
Value
$252.97
PnL
-$106.64
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$271.05
Value
$189.64
PnL
-$81.41
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$189.19
Value
$117.79
PnL
-$48.78
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
Invested
$124.62
Value
$86.43
PnL
-$38.19
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
Invested
$33.32
Value
$26.84
PnL
-$6.48
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$4.68
Value
$3.24
PnL
-$1.43
Record
51%
6082-5802 (11884)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.