Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Hapoel Haifa FC win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 3.1¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 33%
1 arb excluded
$5.8K
$63.22
52.5¢ → 3.1¢
-94% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Noavg 52.6¢ | $3.4K | $3.3K | -$100.24 | 49% 19169-19561 (38730) |
 RN1 | Yesavg 47¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$57.84 | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 47.3¢ | $832 | $861.36 | +$29.37 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 48.2¢ | $68.55 | $122.53 | +$53.99 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
 poshposh<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $42.29 | $64.13 | +$21.84 | 59% 10191-7178 (17369) |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $48.23 | $52.82 | +$4.59 | 49% 7982-8322 (16304) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 48¢ | $28.29 | $28.88 | +$0.59 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 42.5¢ | $19.94 | $23.94 | +$4 | |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $8.04 | $8.47 | +$0.43 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
Invested
$3,388.07
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$100.24
Record
49%
19169-19561 (38730)
RN1Invested
$1,359.24
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$57.84
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
Invested
$832
Value
$861.36
PnL
+$29.37
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
Invested
$68.55
Value
$122.53
PnL
+$53.99
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
poshposh<$100Invested
$42.29
Value
$64.13
PnL
+$21.84
Record
59%
10191-7178 (17369)
Invested
$48.23
Value
$52.82
PnL
+$4.59
Record
49%
7982-8322 (16304)
Both legs:
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.04
Value
$8.47
PnL
+$0.43
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.