Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will North East United FC win on 2026-10-30?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 43¢ · $715 held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$714.89
-$48.52
56.2¢ → 42.5¢
-24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 55.9¢ | $602.97 | $554.61 | -$48.35 | 50% 24854-24560 (49414) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 57.9¢ | $148.33 | $137.89 | -$4.15 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 38.3¢ | $5.75 | $8.85 | +$3.1 | 54% 6194-5243 (11437) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 51.9¢ | $7.66 | $8.54 | +$0.88 | 52% 3998-3640 (7638) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.58 | +$0.28 | 38% 3192-5199 (8391) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $2.43 | -$0.28 | 73% 1546-559 (2105) |
Invested
$602.97
Value
$554.61
PnL
-$48.35
Record
50%
24854-24560 (49414)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$148.33
Value
$137.89
PnL
-$4.15
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
Invested
$5.75
Value
$8.85
PnL
+$3.1
Record
54%
6194-5243 (11437)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.66
Value
$8.54
PnL
+$0.88
Record
52%
3998-3640 (7638)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.58
PnL
+$0.28
Record
38%
3192-5199 (8391)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.43
PnL
-$0.28
Record
73%
1546-559 (2105)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.