Mumbai City FC vs. SC Delhi: O/U 2.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 62¢ · $227 held · ended Nov 1

Over62¢Under38¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$227.17

Combined PnL

$44.93

Smart Money Entry

45.1¢ → 62¢

+37% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over62%

Under38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$198.66

Total Shares250

Combined PnL+$44.91

Under2 traders

Total Value$28.5

Total Shares75

Combined PnL+$0.02

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Overavg 44.4¢	$112.44	$195.41	+$45.85	58% 42662-31048 (73710)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 35.9¢	$22.24	$23.56	+$1.32	59% 46876-33139 (80015)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$6.24	$4.94	-$1.3	53% 5597-5025 (10622)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 80¢	$4.2	$3.26	-$0.95	50% 33838-33423 (67261)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$112.44

Value

$195.41

PnL

+$45.85

Record

58%

42662-31048 (73710)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.24

Value

$23.56

PnL

+$1.32

Record

59%

46876-33139 (80015)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.24

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$1.3

Record

53%

5597-5025 (10622)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$4.2

Value

$3.26

PnL

-$0.95

Record

50%

33838-33423 (67261)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.