Will Mumbai City FC win on 2026-11-01?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 94¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$1.6K
$641.25
47.6¢ → 94¢
+97% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | Yesavg 48¢ | $638.17 | $1.2K | +$551.75 | 55% 1777-1466 (3243) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 46.4¢ | $194.38 | $376.76 | +$109.12 | 58% 42662-31048 (73710) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 48.8¢ | $13.49 | $2.76 | -$11.14 | 48% 8937-9552 (18489) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Noavg 50.7¢ | $4.51 | $2.37 | -$2.15 | 54% 6424-5409 (11833) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 37.2¢ | $8.3 | $2.12 | -$6.18 | 50% 33838-33423 (67261) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 7¢ | $1.05 | $0.9 | -$0.15 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
Invested
$638.17
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$551.75
Record
55%
1777-1466 (3243)
VeryLucky888Invested
$194.38
Value
$376.76
PnL
+$109.12
Record
58%
42662-31048 (73710)
Invested
$13.49
Value
$2.76
PnL
-$11.14
Record
48%
8937-9552 (18489)
Invested
$4.51
Value
$2.37
PnL
-$2.15
Record
54%
6424-5409 (11833)
Invested
$8.3
Value
$2.12
PnL
-$6.18
Record
50%
33838-33423 (67261)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.9
PnL
-$0.15
Record
53%
5597-5025 (10622)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.