Will SC Delhi win on 2026-11-01?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $768 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$768.32
$28.53
93.3¢ → 98.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 99¢ | $392.36 | $392.16 | -$0.2 | 50% 19431-19804 (39235) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 98.4¢ | $191.85 | $193.34 | +$1.49 | 50% 33838-33423 (67261) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 76¢ | $135.54 | $163.36 | +$27.83 | 58% 42662-31048 (73710) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 86.8¢ | $18.87 | $19.29 | +$0.42 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $0.75 | $0.11 | -$0.61 | 48% 8937-9552 (18489) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $0.45 | $0.05 | -$0.4 | 54% 6424-5409 (11833) |
Invested
$392.36
Value
$392.16
PnL
-$0.2
Record
50%
19431-19804 (39235)
Invested
$191.85
Value
$193.34
PnL
+$1.49
Record
50%
33838-33423 (67261)
VeryLucky888Invested
$135.54
Value
$163.36
PnL
+$27.83
Record
58%
42662-31048 (73710)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$18.87
Value
$19.29
PnL
+$0.42
Record
53%
5597-5025 (10622)
Invested
$0.75
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$0.61
Record
48%
8937-9552 (18489)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.4
Record
54%
6424-5409 (11833)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.