Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (78%). 2 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

FC Goa vs. SC Delhi: O/U 2.5

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (18%) · Over at 22¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 28

Over22¢Under78¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 18%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

-$52.58

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 22¢

-61% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 11 top traders (18%)Underdog side (market favors Under 78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over22%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares6,990

Combined PnL-$99.36

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,102

Combined PnL+$46.79

Over — 18%Under — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH Shimi1234CTR	Overavg 55.9¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	-$97.08	38% 103-165 (268)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Underavg 44¢	$595.06	$615.34	+$20.29	50% 2460-2452 (4912)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 50¢	$476.19	$485.71	+$9.52	50% 12108-12317 (24425)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 44¢	$266.86	$275.96	+$9.1	50% 32772-32329 (65101)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 44.2¢	$221	$227.5	+$6.5	58% 40752-29469 (70221)
AD adururu	Underavg 47¢	$148.65	$143.9	-$4.74	53% 356-311 (667)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Underavg 46¢	$145.62	$143.9	-$1.72	53% 328-293 (621)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 59.2¢	$26.78	$35.26	+$8.48	59% 44606-31003 (75609)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 53¢	$5.83	$4.9	-$0.93	59% 30088-20807 (50895)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 40.5¢	$5	$2.72	-$2.28	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 54¢	$1.08	$1.38	+$0.3	53% 3047-2709 (5756)

Shimi1234CTR

Over

Invested

$3,900

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$97.08

Record

38%

103-165 (268)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Under

Invested

$595.06

Value

$615.34

PnL

+$20.29

Record

50%

2460-2452 (4912)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$476.19

Value

$485.71

PnL

+$9.52

Record

50%

12108-12317 (24425)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$266.86

Value

$275.96

PnL

+$9.1

Record

50%

32772-32329 (65101)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$221

Value

$227.5

PnL

+$6.5

Record

58%

40752-29469 (70221)

adururu

Under

Invested

$148.65

Value

$143.9

PnL

-$4.74

Record

53%

356-311 (667)

oxe78sh4w98

Under

Invested

$145.62

Value

$143.9

PnL

-$1.72

Record

53%

328-293 (621)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$26.78

Value

$35.26

PnL

+$8.48

Record

59%

44606-31003 (75609)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$5.83

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$0.93

Record

59%

30088-20807 (50895)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$2.28

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

3047-2709 (5756)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 11 top traders (18%)Underdog side (market favors Under 78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.9%

22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$318.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

418.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.