Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (91%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will SC Delhi win on 2026-10-28?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 9.5¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 40%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$190.25
77.3¢ → 9.5¢
-88% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 82.1¢ | $1.4K | $891.1 | -$507.79 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 44.1¢ | $299.77 | $462.45 | +$162.68 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 82.1¢ | $1.1K | $428.65 | -$670.48 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 75.6¢ | $204.61 | $361.2 | +$156.59 | 59% 44606-31005 (75611) |
LU LuckyLoo | Yesavg 49.2¢ | $102.27 | $115.08 | +$12.81 | 50% 12109-12317 (24426) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $55.39 | $76.44 | +$21.05 | 49% 18600-19021 (37621) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $26.92 | $26.92 | +$0 | 50% 32772-32329 (65101) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $5 | $4.8 | -$0.2 | 54% 6046-5125 (11171) |
Invested
$1,398.89
Value
$891.1
PnL
-$507.79
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Both legs:
Invested
$204.61
Value
$361.2
PnL
+$156.59
Record
59%
44606-31005 (75611)
Invested
$102.27
Value
$115.08
PnL
+$12.81
Record
50%
12109-12317 (24426)
Invested
$55.39
Value
$76.44
PnL
+$21.05
Record
49%
18600-19021 (37621)
Invested
$26.92
Value
$26.92
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
32772-32329 (65101)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.8
PnL
-$0.2
Record
54%
6046-5125 (11171)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.