Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will FC Goa win on 2026-10-28?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 49¢ · $410 held · ended Oct 28

Yes52¢No48¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$410.45

Combined PnL

-$2.65

Smart Money Entry

40.9¢ → 48.5¢

+19% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$279.68

Total Shares692

Combined PnL-$2.99

Yes4 traders

Total Value$130.78

Total Shares211

Combined PnL+$0.34

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
us391CTR	Noavg 40¢	$183.11	$180.82	-$2.29	51% 1646-1580 (3226)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Yesavg 59.6¢	$86.62	$84.03	-$2.59	59% 44606-31003 (75609)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$69.52	$63.87	-$5.64	58% 28121-20725 (48846)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 41.7¢	$30.04	$34.98	+$4.94	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$14.81	$18.01	+$3.19	60% 9362-6344 (15706)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$17.49	$17.99	+$0.5	50% 12108-12317 (24425)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$11.51	$10.76	-$0.75	53% 3047-2709 (5756)

us391CTR

Invested

$183.11

Value

$180.82

PnL

-$2.29

Record

51%

1646-1580 (3226)

UpTheBlues<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.62

Value

$84.03

PnL

-$2.59

Record

59%

44606-31003 (75609)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$69.52

Value

$63.87

PnL

-$5.64

Record

58%

28121-20725 (48846)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$30.04

Value

$34.98

PnL

+$4.94

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.81

Value

$18.01

PnL

+$3.19

Record

60%

9362-6344 (15706)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.49

Value

$17.99

PnL

+$0.5

Record

50%

12108-12317 (24425)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.51

Value

$10.76

PnL

-$0.75

Record

53%

3047-2709 (5756)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.