Sligo Rovers FC vs. Derry City FC: O/U 2.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 85¢ · $758 held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 29%
$757.98
$7.82
57.9¢ → 85¢
+47% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 58¢ | $414.12 | $553.35 | +$139.23 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR | Underavg 42¢ | $210 | $112.5 | -$97.5 | 54% 4856-4082 (8938) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $31.97 | $40.57 | +$8.6 | 59% 45382-31736 (77118) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $45.78 | $24.53 | -$21.26 | 58% 28428-20989 (49417) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 42¢ | $123.87 | $22.5 | -$17.51 | 58% 41515-30150 (71665) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $7.2 | $3.86 | -$3.34 | 49% 19009-19414 (38423) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $1.08 | $0.68 | -$0.41 | 52% 4016-3659 (7675) |
Invested
$414.12
Value
$553.35
PnL
+$139.23
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$210
Value
$112.5
PnL
-$97.5
Record
54%
4856-4082 (8938)
Invested
$31.97
Value
$40.57
PnL
+$8.6
Record
59%
45382-31736 (77118)
Invested
$45.78
Value
$24.53
PnL
-$21.26
Record
58%
28428-20989 (49417)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$123.87
Value
$22.5
PnL
-$17.51
Record
58%
41515-30150 (71665)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$3.86
PnL
-$3.34
Record
49%
19009-19414 (38423)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$0.68
PnL
-$0.41
Record
52%
4016-3659 (7675)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.