Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (82%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Sligo Rovers FC win on 2026-10-30?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 19¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 50%
$4.1K
$1.2K
78.2¢ → 18.5¢
-76% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 82%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Noavg 78¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$0 | 51% 1672-1622 (3294) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 24.8¢ | $646.35 | $1.8K | +$1.2K | 59% 45382-31736 (77118) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR | Noavg 82¢ | $164 | $156 | -$8 | 54% 4856-4082 (8938) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 21.4¢ | $55.55 | $110.22 | +$54.67 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $65.32 | $70.62 | -$0.44 | 58% 28428-20989 (49417) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $12.38 | $11.17 | -$1.22 | 54% 56331-48482 (104813) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 20.3¢ | $2.23 | $2.2 | -$0.03 | 52% 4016-3659 (7675) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $1.5 | $1.43 | -$0.07 | 47% 2471-2781 (5252) |
us391CTRInvested
$1,930.57
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
1672-1622 (3294)
Invested
$646.35
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
59%
45382-31736 (77118)
Invested
$164
Value
$156
PnL
-$8
Record
54%
4856-4082 (8938)
Invested
$55.55
Value
$110.22
PnL
+$54.67
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$65.32
Value
$70.62
PnL
-$0.44
Record
58%
28428-20989 (49417)
RN1<$100Invested
$12.38
Value
$11.17
PnL
-$1.22
Record
54%
56331-48482 (104813)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.23
Value
$2.2
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
4016-3659 (7675)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$1.43
PnL
-$0.07
Record
47%
2471-2781 (5252)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.