Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 4 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Derry City FC win on 2026-10-30?

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 4.5¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 30

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 4.5¢

-92% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares12,109

Combined PnL-$30.91

Yes4 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares12,161

Combined PnL$-1.3K

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 46.4¢	$6.1K	$6.2K	+$92.61	49% 19009-19414 (38423)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$245.15	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Yesavg 59¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$151.51	47% 2471-2781 (5252)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 55.5¢	$2.6K	$1.2K	$-1.4K	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 53.6¢	$704.67	$554.75	-$149.92	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
└ No leg	Noavg 41.2¢	$193.84	$388.08	+$194.24
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53.6¢	$510.83	$166.67	-$344.16
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Yesavg 52.5¢	$343.93	$351.67	-$18.56	58% 28428-20989 (49417)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 51.9¢	$765.51	$202.56	-$89.56	58% 41515-30150 (71665)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388	Noavg 52¢	$219.32	$194.01	-$25.31	55% 1727-1417 (3144)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 52¢	$43.49	$38.47	-$5.02	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 49.5¢	$23.65	$23.32	-$0.33	52% 4016-3659 (7675)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 75.6¢	$17.3	$15.22	-$2.07	59% 30379-21090 (51469)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 76¢	$9.88	$8.65	-$1.24	62% 1130-682 (1812)
RN1<$100	Noavg 53¢	$5.64	$5.64	-$0	54% 56331-48482 (104813)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$6,143.8

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$92.61

Record

49%

19009-19414 (38423)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,402.5

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$245.15

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,791.87

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$151.51

Record

47%

2471-2781 (5252)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,608.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$704.67

Value

$554.75

PnL

-$149.92

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

Both legs:

No$193.8441.2¢+$194.24

Yes$510.8353.6¢-$344.16

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Yes

Invested

$343.93

Value

$351.67

PnL

-$18.56

Record

58%

28428-20989 (49417)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$765.51

Value

$202.56

PnL

-$89.56

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

VD721lsj4938Dk388

Invested

$219.32

Value

$194.01

PnL

-$25.31

Record

55%

1727-1417 (3144)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$43.49

Value

$38.47

PnL

-$5.02

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$23.65

Value

$23.32

PnL

-$0.33

Record

52%

4016-3659 (7675)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$17.3

Value

$15.22

PnL

-$2.07

Record

59%

30379-21090 (51469)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$9.88

Value

$8.65

PnL

-$1.24

Record

62%

1130-682 (1812)

RN1<$100

Invested

$5.64

Value

$5.64

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.8%

4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1636.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

1736.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.