Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Shamrock Rovers win on 2026-10-30?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 47¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30

Yes47¢No53¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$65.27

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 47¢

-5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$803.84

Total Shares1,392

Combined PnL+$118.81

No5 traders

Total Value$526.32

Total Shares1,142

Combined PnL-$53.54

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$531.36	$585.59	+$54.22	49% 19009-19414 (38423)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 51¢	$326.82	$294.78	-$32.04	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 49.5¢	$144.81	$207.53	+$62.72	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 50.5¢	$207.2	$188.6	-$18.6	58% 41515-30150 (71665)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 50¢	$34.5	$33.46	-$2.76	58% 28428-20989 (49417)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$8.85	$10.73	+$1.88	54% 6195-5245 (11440)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 47¢	$8.45	$8.27	-$0.18	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 28¢	$1.17	$1.21	+$0.04	50% 33199-32726 (65925)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$531.36

Value

$585.59

PnL

+$54.22

Record

49%

19009-19414 (38423)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$326.82

Value

$294.78

PnL

-$32.04

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$144.81

Value

$207.53

PnL

+$62.72

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$207.2

Value

$188.6

PnL

-$18.6

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$34.5

Value

$33.46

PnL

-$2.76

Record

58%

28428-20989 (49417)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.85

Value

$10.73

PnL

+$1.88

Record

54%

6195-5245 (11440)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$8.45

Value

$8.27

PnL

-$0.18

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.21

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.