Will Psim Yogyakarta win on 2026-11-01?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 88¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1

Yes88¢No12¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$140.77

Smart Money Entry

66.1¢ → 87.5¢

+32% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,665

Combined PnL+$403.37

No3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares3,850

Combined PnL-$262.6

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 75.9¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	-$24.04	50% 25632-25461 (51093)
RN1CTR	Noavg 31.8¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$263.55	54% 57130-49397 (106527)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 41¢	$455.88	$911.3	+$455.42	59% 46853-33124 (79977)
RO Rocko33<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$50	$18.18	-$31.82	63% 1196-693 (1889)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$5.53	$8.15	+$2.62	58% 10631-7605 (18236)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$5.17	$6.37	+$1.19	48% 8915-9527 (18442)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 67¢	$3.64	$4.53	+$0.89	54% 6424-5409 (11833)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 82¢	$1.32	$1.38	+$0.06	53% 5577-5013 (10590)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$3,299.55

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$24.04

Record

50%

25632-25461 (51093)

RN1CTR

Invested

$1,296.56

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$263.55

Record

54%

57130-49397 (106527)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$455.88

Value

$911.3

PnL

+$455.42

Record

59%

46853-33124 (79977)

Rocko33<$100

Yes

Invested

$50

Value

$18.18

PnL

-$31.82

Record

63%

1196-693 (1889)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.53

Value

$8.15

PnL

+$2.62

Record

58%

10631-7605 (18236)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.17

Value

$6.37

PnL

+$1.19

Record

48%

8915-9527 (18442)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$3.64

Value

$4.53

PnL

+$0.89

Record

54%

6424-5409 (11833)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

5577-5013 (10590)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.