Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Psim Yogyakarta vs. Borneo Samarinda: O/U 2.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,859

Combined PnL+$998.57

Under5 traders

Total Value$440.68

Total Shares3,763

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 44.3¢	$772	$1.7K	+$968.86	50% 25632-25461 (51093)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 62¢	$2.2K	$195.25	$-2.0K	59% 46853-33124 (79977)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Underavg 62.7¢	$190.82	$118.99	-$71.84	48% 8915-9527 (18442)
poshposhCTR	Underavg 69.4¢	$122.05	$91.79	-$30.26	58% 10631-7605 (18236)
RN1<$100	Overavg 47.9¢	$42.61	$66.82	+$24.21	54% 57130-49397 (106527)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 50.7¢	$31.49	$31.69	+$0.19	53% 5577-5013 (10590)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Overavg 38¢	$19	$24.5	+$5.5	47% 4646-5167 (9813)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$2.67	$2.97	+$0.29	58% 42636-31031 (73667)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$772

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$968.86

Record

50%

25632-25461 (51093)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$2,176.74

Value

$195.25

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

59%

46853-33124 (79977)

topdogbigboiCTR

Under

Invested

$190.82

Value

$118.99

PnL

-$71.84

Record

48%

8915-9527 (18442)

poshposhCTR

Under

Invested

$122.05

Value

$91.79

PnL

-$30.26

Record

58%

10631-7605 (18236)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$42.61

Value

$66.82

PnL

+$24.21

Record

54%

57130-49397 (106527)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.49

Value

$31.69

PnL

+$0.19

Record

53%

5577-5013 (10590)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Over

Invested

$19

Value

$24.5

PnL

+$5.5

Record

47%

4646-5167 (9813)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.67

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.29

Record

58%

42636-31031 (73667)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.