Psim Yogyakarta vs. Borneo Samarinda: O/U 1.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$1.68

Smart Money Entry

76¢ → 100¢

+31% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,531

Combined PnL+$363.68

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.45

Total Shares1,582

Combined PnL-$365.37

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 76.9¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$328.3	50% 25632-25461 (51093)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 64.6¢	$64.05	$98.16	+$34.11	48% 8915-9527 (18442)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 69¢	$7.98	$9.25	+$1.27	58% 10631-7605 (18236)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 23.1¢	$363.97	$0.79	-$363.19	59% 46853-33124 (79977)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$78.71	$0.66	-$1.07	58% 42636-31031 (73667)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$1.12	$0	-$1.12	53% 5577-5013 (10590)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,092.61

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$328.3

Record

50%

25632-25461 (51093)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$64.05

Value

$98.16

PnL

+$34.11

Record

48%

8915-9527 (18442)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$7.98

Value

$9.25

PnL

+$1.27

Record

58%

10631-7605 (18236)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$363.97

Value

$0.79

PnL

-$363.19

Record

59%

46853-33124 (79977)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$78.71

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$1.07

Record

58%

42636-31031 (73667)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.12

Value

PnL

-$1.12

Record

53%

5577-5013 (10590)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.