Will Borneo Samarinda win on 2026-11-01?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$5.0K
$857.58
69.7¢ → 99.6¢
+43% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 73.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.6K | +$384.03 | 59% 46853-33124 (79977) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 46.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.6K | +$375.96 | 50% 25632-25461 (51093) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$24.43 | 50% 33832-33414 (67246) |
 RN1 | Noavg 48.2¢ | $84.66 | $174.5 | +$89.84 | 54% 57130-49397 (106527) |
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 39.1¢ | $48.17 | $103.27 | +$55.1 | 48% 8915-9527 (18442) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $47.17 | $47.17 | +$0 | 50% 19424-19795 (39219) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 67.8¢ | $23.39 | $27.76 | +$4.37 | 53% 5577-5013 (10590) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $50 | $27.27 | -$22.73 | 63% 1196-693 (1889) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.7¢ | $59.58 | $6.16 | -$53.42 | 54% 6424-5409 (11833) |
Invested
$1,236.81
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$384.03
Record
59%
46853-33124 (79977)
Invested
$1,219.16
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$375.96
Record
50%
25632-25461 (51093)
Invested
$1,354.15
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$24.43
Record
50%
33832-33414 (67246)
RN1Invested
$84.66
Value
$174.5
PnL
+$89.84
Record
54%
57130-49397 (106527)
Invested
$48.17
Value
$103.27
PnL
+$55.1
Record
48%
8915-9527 (18442)
Invested
$47.17
Value
$47.17
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
19424-19795 (39219)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$23.39
Value
$27.76
PnL
+$4.37
Record
53%
5577-5013 (10590)
Invested
$50
Value
$27.27
PnL
-$22.73
Record
63%
1196-693 (1889)
Invested
$59.58
Value
$6.16
PnL
-$53.42
Record
54%
6424-5409 (11833)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.