Will Psim Yogyakarta vs. Borneo Samarinda end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 84¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
$108.19
71.9¢ → 84¢
+17% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 72¢ | $1.9K | $2.2K | +$105.7 | 50% 25632-25461 (51093) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 45.7¢ | $218.81 | $101.18 | -$117.63 | 59% 46853-33124 (79977) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 45.7¢ | $196.59 | $77.4 | -$119.19 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 76.6¢ | $22.22 | $23.78 | +$1.56 | |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 35.7¢ | $39.54 | $38.78 | -$0.76 | 54% 57130-49397 (106527) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 68.5¢ | $20.55 | $22.2 | +$1.65 | 54% 6424-5409 (11833) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $3.3 | $3.7 | +$0.4 | 48% 8915-9527 (18442) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $9.7 | $3.5 | +$1.2 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
Invested
$1,939.9
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$105.7
Record
50%
25632-25461 (51093)
Invested
$218.81
Value
$101.18
PnL
-$117.63
Record
59%
46853-33124 (79977)
Both legs:
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$39.54
Value
$38.78
PnL
-$0.76
Record
54%
57130-49397 (106527)
Invested
$20.55
Value
$22.2
PnL
+$1.65
Record
54%
6424-5409 (11833)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$3.7
PnL
+$0.4
Record
48%
8915-9527 (18442)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$9.7
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$1.2
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.