Psim Yogyakarta vs. Borneo Samarinda: Both Teams to Score
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 100¢ · $242 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$242.1
$94.16
53.1¢ → 100¢
+88% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboi | Yesavg 50.7¢ | $71.85 | $130.01 | +$58.15 | 48% 8915-9527 (18442) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $19.08 | $56.09 | +$37.01 | 50% 33832-33414 (67246) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Yesavg 96¢ | $36.48 | $37.98 | +$1.5 | 59% 46853-33124 (79977) |
 poshposh<$100 | Yesavg 43.6¢ | $13.3 | $10.38 | -$2.92 | 58% 10631-7605 (18236) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $96.81 | $5.49 | +$1.11 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $2.15 | -$0.7 | 53% 5577-5013 (10590) |
Invested
$71.85
Value
$130.01
PnL
+$58.15
Record
48%
8915-9527 (18442)
Invested
$19.08
Value
$56.09
PnL
+$37.01
Record
50%
33832-33414 (67246)
Invested
$36.48
Value
$37.98
PnL
+$1.5
Record
59%
46853-33124 (79977)
poshposh<$100Invested
$13.3
Value
$10.38
PnL
-$2.92
Record
58%
10631-7605 (18236)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$96.81
Value
$5.49
PnL
+$1.11
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.15
PnL
-$0.7
Record
53%
5577-5013 (10590)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.