Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
PSS Sleman vs. Borneo Samarinda: O/U 2.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 45¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 75%
2 arb excluded
$5.4K
$226.9
49¢ → 45¢
-8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 45.9¢ | $2.2K | $2.3K | +$108.97 | 54% 55308-47341 (102649) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 45.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$75.56 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 49.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$33.4 | |
 JohnLKellyJrCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $1.6K | $1.8K | +$199.98 | 53% 1180-1053 (2233) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 61.8¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$88.29 | 50% 24100-23732 (47832) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 61.8¢ | $728.01 | $842.36 | +$114.35 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 31.3¢ | $289.33 | $263.27 | -$26.06 | |
 HRTrading | Underavg 50.7¢ | $79.01 | $103.09 | +$24.08 | 54% 2548-2180 (4728) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $26.06 | $26.12 | +$0.06 | 50% 11935-12084 (24019) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $19.48 | $22.27 | +$2.78 | 60% 9071-5988 (15059) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$2,191.22
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$108.97
Record
54%
55308-47341 (102649)
Both legs:
JohnLKellyJrCTRInvested
$1,633.16
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$199.98
Record
53%
1180-1053 (2233)
Invested
$1,017.34
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$88.29
Record
50%
24100-23732 (47832)
Both legs:
HRTradingInvested
$79.01
Value
$103.09
PnL
+$24.08
Record
54%
2548-2180 (4728)
Invested
$26.06
Value
$26.12
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
11935-12084 (24019)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$19.48
Value
$22.27
PnL
+$2.78
Record
60%
9071-5988 (15059)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.