PSS Sleman vs. Borneo Samarinda: O/U 1.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 94¢ · $505 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 50%
$505.5
-$30.14
76.4¢ → 94¢
+23% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 76.5¢ | $298.34 | $260.03 | -$38.3 | 50% 24100-23732 (47832) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 77.7¢ | $116.5 | $113.67 | +$1.17 | 58% 40364-29157 (69521) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 25.1¢ | $69.59 | $92.96 | +$23.37 | 59% 44229-30605 (74834) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Overavg 62¢ | $10.54 | $15.98 | +$5.44 | 77% 3034-925 (3959) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 26.9¢ | $14.74 | $11.5 | -$3.25 | 54% 55308-47341 (102649) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 32.6¢ | $24.13 | $4.44 | -$19.69 | 50% 32577-32115 (64692) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 83¢ | $5 | $4.28 | -$0.71 | 54% 2548-2180 (4728) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 4¢ | $0.81 | $2.63 | +$1.82 | 60% 9071-5988 (15059) |
Invested
$298.34
Value
$260.03
PnL
-$38.3
Record
50%
24100-23732 (47832)
VeryLucky888Invested
$116.5
Value
$113.67
PnL
+$1.17
Record
58%
40364-29157 (69521)
Invested
$69.59
Value
$92.96
PnL
+$23.37
Record
59%
44229-30605 (74834)
Invested
$10.54
Value
$15.98
PnL
+$5.44
Record
77%
3034-925 (3959)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$14.74
Value
$11.5
PnL
-$3.25
Record
54%
55308-47341 (102649)
Invested
$24.13
Value
$4.44
PnL
-$19.69
Record
50%
32577-32115 (64692)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5
Value
$4.28
PnL
-$0.71
Record
54%
2548-2180 (4728)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.81
Value
$2.63
PnL
+$1.82
Record
60%
9071-5988 (15059)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.