Will PSS Sleman win on 2026-10-28?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 99¢ · $439 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 38%
$439.49
$95.74
66.8¢ → 99¢
+48% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 64.2¢ | $237.82 | $352.29 | +$114.47 | 54% 55308-47341 (102649) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $45.6 | $32.38 | -$13.23 | 50% 24100-23732 (47832) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $30.25 | $30.28 | +$0.03 | 50% 11935-12084 (24019) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 65.9¢ | $10.89 | $15.49 | +$4.6 | 54% 2548-2180 (4728) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.5¢ | $6.45 | $6.65 | +$0.2 | 54% 5999-5086 (11085) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $1.94 | $1.53 | -$0.42 | 60% 9071-5988 (15059) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 34¢ | $352.24 | $0.69 | -$9.94 | 58% 40364-29157 (69521) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $0.13 | $0.16 | +$0.03 | 50% 32577-32115 (64692) |
RN1Invested
$237.82
Value
$352.29
PnL
+$114.47
Record
54%
55308-47341 (102649)
Invested
$45.6
Value
$32.38
PnL
-$13.23
Record
50%
24100-23732 (47832)
Invested
$30.25
Value
$30.28
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
11935-12084 (24019)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$10.89
Value
$15.49
PnL
+$4.6
Record
54%
2548-2180 (4728)
Invested
$6.45
Value
$6.65
PnL
+$0.2
Record
54%
5999-5086 (11085)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$1.94
Value
$1.53
PnL
-$0.42
Record
60%
9071-5988 (15059)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$352.24
Value
$0.69
PnL
-$9.94
Record
58%
40364-29157 (69521)
Invested
$0.13
Value
$0.16
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
32577-32115 (64692)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.