Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (90%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Borneo Samarinda win on 2026-10-28?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 10¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27

Yes90¢No10¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 10¢

-82% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 90%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes90%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$818.58

Total Shares4,402

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$384.09

Total Shares497

Combined PnL+$18.57

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 60.4¢	$1.9K	$448.42	$-1.5K	59% 44229-30605 (74834)
RN1	Yesavg 86.2¢	$245.09	$248.44	+$3.36	54% 55308-47341 (102649)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 61¢	$459.5	$232.01	-$3.26	58% 40364-29157 (69521)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 62.9¢	$63.23	$81.93	+$18.7	59% 29915-20638 (50553)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 52.5¢	$271	$75.98	-$195.02	50% 32577-32115 (64692)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$46.2	$44.1	-$2.1	49% 18383-18810 (37193)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 20.8¢	$63.69	$38.21	-$25.48	50% 24100-23732 (47832)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 54.6¢	$60.86	$23.96	-$36.9	54% 5999-5086 (11085)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 82.3¢	$11	$9.62	-$1.38	54% 2548-2180 (4728)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$1,911.08

Value

$448.42

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

59%

44229-30605 (74834)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$245.09

Value

$248.44

PnL

+$3.36

Record

54%

55308-47341 (102649)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$459.5

Value

$232.01

PnL

-$3.26

Record

58%

40364-29157 (69521)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.23

Value

$81.93

PnL

+$18.7

Record

59%

29915-20638 (50553)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$271

Value

$75.98

PnL

-$195.02

Record

50%

32577-32115 (64692)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.2

Value

$44.1

PnL

-$2.1

Record

49%

18383-18810 (37193)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$63.69

Value

$38.21

PnL

-$25.48

Record

50%

24100-23732 (47832)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$60.86

Value

$23.96

PnL

-$36.9

Record

54%

5999-5086 (11085)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$11

Value

$9.62

PnL

-$1.38

Record

54%

2548-2180 (4728)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 90%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.5%

10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$770.36

Max Loss

-$100.00

870.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.