Will PSS Sleman vs. Borneo Samarinda end in a draw?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 91¢ · $294 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$294.21
-$3.31
72.5¢ → 90.5¢
+25% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 72¢ | $183.6 | $186.15 | +$2.55 | 50% 24100-23732 (47832) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $56.85 | $57.64 | +$0.79 | 58% 40364-29157 (69521) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $21.2 | $20.95 | -$0.25 | 59% 44229-30605 (74834) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $21.56 | $20.44 | -$1.12 | 50% 11935-12084 (24019) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $4.2 | $5 | +$0.8 | 54% 5999-5086 (11085) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $8.96 | $3.36 | -$5.6 | 50% 32577-32115 (64692) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $1.14 | $0.67 | -$0.47 | 54% 2548-2180 (4728) |
Invested
$183.6
Value
$186.15
PnL
+$2.55
Record
50%
24100-23732 (47832)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$56.85
Value
$57.64
PnL
+$0.79
Record
58%
40364-29157 (69521)
Invested
$21.2
Value
$20.95
PnL
-$0.25
Record
59%
44229-30605 (74834)
Invested
$21.56
Value
$20.44
PnL
-$1.12
Record
50%
11935-12084 (24019)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.8
Record
54%
5999-5086 (11085)
Invested
$8.96
Value
$3.36
PnL
-$5.6
Record
50%
32577-32115 (64692)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.14
Value
$0.67
PnL
-$0.47
Record
54%
2548-2180 (4728)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.