Will Persijap Jepara win on 2026-10-30?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 67¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 30

Yes33¢No67¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$118.05

Smart Money Entry

89.7¢ → 67¢

-25% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,854

Combined PnL+$118.04

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.55

Total Shares9

Combined PnL+$0

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 89.8¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$138.78	54% 56315-48472 (104787)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 90.6¢	$382.07	$394.26	+$14.19	58% 41488-30106 (71594)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 81.2¢	$288.38	$345.99	+$57.61	50% 24854-24560 (49414)
└ No leg	Noavg 81.2¢	$265.12	$210.58	-$54.54
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 6.1¢	$23.26	$135.41	+$112.15
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$72.17	$37.24	-$34.93	38% 3185-5189 (8374)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$1.2	$1.25	+$0.05	52% 3994-3637 (7631)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$0.35	$0.3	-$0.05	54% 6192-5242 (11434)

RN1

Invested

$3,003.05

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$138.78

Record

54%

56315-48472 (104787)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$382.07

Value

$394.26

PnL

+$14.19

Record

58%

41488-30106 (71594)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$288.38

Value

$345.99

PnL

+$57.61

Record

50%

24854-24560 (49414)

Both legs:

No$265.1281.2¢-$54.54

Yes$23.266.1¢+$112.15

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$72.17

Value

$37.24

PnL

-$34.93

Record

38%

3185-5189 (8374)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

3994-3637 (7631)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.05

Record

54%

6192-5242 (11434)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.