Will Persebaya Surabaya vs. Persijap Jepara end in a draw?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 82¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$1.9K
-$2.42
83.1¢ → 81.5¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 83.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$14.44 | 50% 24854-24560 (49414) |
 RN1 | Noavg 83¢ | $346.34 | $342.17 | -$4.17 | 54% 56314-48471 (104785) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 83.1¢ | $436.76 | $311.5 | +$14.44 | 58% 41483-30105 (71588) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $83.33 | $82.33 | -$1 | 59% 9909-6885 (16794) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $69.72 | $72.66 | +$2.94 | 58% 28411-20971 (49382) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 84.7¢ | $5.97 | $5.78 | -$0.19 | 52% 3994-3636 (7630) |
Invested
$1,068.77
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$14.44
Record
50%
24854-24560 (49414)
RN1Invested
$346.34
Value
$342.17
PnL
-$4.17
Record
54%
56314-48471 (104785)
VeryLucky888Invested
$436.76
Value
$311.5
PnL
+$14.44
Record
58%
41483-30105 (71588)
poshposh<$100Invested
$83.33
Value
$82.33
PnL
-$1
Record
59%
9909-6885 (16794)
Invested
$69.72
Value
$72.66
PnL
+$2.94
Record
58%
28411-20971 (49382)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.97
Value
$5.78
PnL
-$0.19
Record
52%
3994-3636 (7630)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.