Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Garuda Yaksa win on 2026-11-07?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 40¢ · $195 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$195.13
-$25.89
45¢ → 40¢
-11% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheComboConnoisseurCTR | Yesavg 45¢ | $200 | $175 | -$25 | 53% 1125-987 (2112) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $9.99 | $9.99 | -$0.25 | 53% 2699-2381 (5080) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $5.45 | $5.73 | +$0.28 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $5.34 | $4.42 | -$0.92 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
Invested
$200
Value
$175
PnL
-$25
Record
53%
1125-987 (2112)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.99
PnL
-$0.25
Record
53%
2699-2381 (5080)
Invested
$5.45
Value
$5.73
PnL
+$0.28
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$5.34
Value
$4.42
PnL
-$0.92
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.