Spread: Persib Bandung (-2.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Persib Bandung (75%) · Persib Bandung at 84¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
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Neutral
Persib Bandung
4
Persib Bandung 75%
$1.0K
$71.41
86.8¢ → 84¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralPersib Bandung at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Persib Bandungavg 88.6¢ | $896.76 | $946.4 | +$49.64 | 50% 25632-25461 (51093) |
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100 | Persib Bandungavg 51¢ | $26.82 | $42.29 | +$15.47 | 47% 4646-5167 (9813) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Persib Bandungavg 45¢ | $9.62 | $16.78 | +$7.16 | 53% 5577-5013 (10590) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Isenmulang Kalteng FCavg 25.7¢ | $2.28 | $1.42 | -$0.86 | 58% 10631-7605 (18236) |
Invested
$896.76
Value
$946.4
PnL
+$49.64
Record
50%
25632-25461 (51093)
Invested
$26.82
Value
$42.29
PnL
+$15.47
Record
47%
4646-5167 (9813)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.62
Value
$16.78
PnL
+$7.16
Record
53%
5577-5013 (10590)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$2.28
Value
$1.42
PnL
-$0.86
Record
58%
10631-7605 (18236)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.