Java United FC vs. Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC: O/U 2.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 85¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 30

Over16¢Under84¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$321.19

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 84.5¢

+79% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over16%

Under85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares14,573

Combined PnL+$368.78

Over3 traders

Total Value$205.69

Total Shares472

Combined PnL-$47.59

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chongchong37	Underavg 45.9¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$176.6	55% 100-83 (183)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 52¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$199.58	50% 24853-24559 (49412)
RO Rocko33CTR	Overavg 50.2¢	$85.17	$108.51	+$23.33	64% 1070-605 (1675)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 54.6¢	$140.94	$58.54	-$82.4	38% 3184-5178 (8362)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$27.17	$38.64	+$11.47	49% 18973-19387 (38360)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 40¢	$27.85	$20.89	-$6.96	58% 28411-20968 (49379)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 40¢	$1.72	$1.29	-$0.43	52% 3992-3635 (7627)

chongchong37

Under

Invested

$3,848.33

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$176.6

Record

55%

100-83 (183)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,841.11

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$199.58

Record

50%

24853-24559 (49412)

Rocko33CTR

Over

Invested

$85.17

Value

$108.51

PnL

+$23.33

Record

64%

1070-605 (1675)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$140.94

Value

$58.54

PnL

-$82.4

Record

38%

3184-5178 (8362)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27.17

Value

$38.64

PnL

+$11.47

Record

49%

18973-19387 (38360)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$27.85

Value

$20.89

PnL

-$6.96

Record

58%

28411-20968 (49379)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.72

Value

$1.29

PnL

-$0.43

Record

52%

3992-3635 (7627)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.