PSM Makassar vs. Madura United: O/U 2.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 85¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 57%
$2.3K
$99.48
62.8¢ → 84.5¢
+34% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 76¢ | $827.84 | $909.45 | +$81.61 | 59% 45758-32100 (77858) |
 RN1 | Underavg 54.9¢ | $860.27 | $870.21 | +$9.94 | 54% 56568-48734 (105302) |
SA Saber-greedCTR | Overavg 54¢ | $282.68 | $295.96 | +$13.28 | 59% 2554-1781 (4335) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 17.3¢ | $157.44 | $149.86 | -$7.58 | 50% 25065-24808 (49873) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 46.8¢ | $57.27 | $53.14 | +$1.87 | 58% 41850-30387 (72237) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Underavg 16¢ | $0.19 | $0.58 | +$0.39 | 49% 7902-8215 (16117) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $0.53 | $0.52 | -$0.02 | 53% 4546-4095 (8641) |
Invested
$827.84
Value
$909.45
PnL
+$81.61
Record
59%
45758-32100 (77858)
RN1Invested
$860.27
Value
$870.21
PnL
+$9.94
Record
54%
56568-48734 (105302)
Invested
$282.68
Value
$295.96
PnL
+$13.28
Record
59%
2554-1781 (4335)
Invested
$157.44
Value
$149.86
PnL
-$7.58
Record
50%
25065-24808 (49873)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$57.27
Value
$53.14
PnL
+$1.87
Record
58%
41850-30387 (72237)
Invested
$0.19
Value
$0.58
PnL
+$0.39
Record
49%
7902-8215 (16117)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.53
Value
$0.52
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
4546-4095 (8641)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.