Will PSM Makassar win on 2026-10-31?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 93¢ · $318 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$317.88
$45.68
50.1¢ → 92.5¢
+85% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 48.6¢ | $145.68 | $171 | +$25.32 | 58% 28670-21162 (49832) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 48¢ | $111.3 | $114 | +$17.4 | 58% 41850-30387 (72237) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $18.74 | $18.97 | +$0.22 | 54% 56568-48734 (105302) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 63.4¢ | $5.86 | $8.09 | +$2.23 | 53% 4546-4095 (8641) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $2.97 | $2.97 | -$0 | 50% 25065-24808 (49873) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.85 | +$0.5 | 54% 6276-5317 (11593) |
Invested
$145.68
Value
$171
PnL
+$25.32
Record
58%
28670-21162 (49832)
VeryLucky888Invested
$111.3
Value
$114
PnL
+$17.4
Record
58%
41850-30387 (72237)
RN1<$100Invested
$18.74
Value
$18.97
PnL
+$0.22
Record
54%
56568-48734 (105302)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.86
Value
$8.09
PnL
+$2.23
Record
53%
4546-4095 (8641)
Invested
$2.97
Value
$2.97
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
25065-24808 (49873)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.85
PnL
+$0.5
Record
54%
6276-5317 (11593)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.