Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (87%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Garuda Yaksa win on 2026-11-01?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 13¢ · $20 held · ended Nov 1

Yes87¢No13¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$20.33

Combined PnL

$14.93

Research grade

AvoidNo at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 87%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes87%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$15.98

Total Shares134

Combined PnL+$12.88

Yes1 trader

Total Value$4.35

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$2.05

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 0.5¢	$0.58	$15.6	+$15.02	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$2.3	$4.35	+$2.05	54% 6424-5410 (11834)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$0.99	$0.3	-$0.69	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$1.53	$0.08	-$1.45	53% 5610-5034 (10644)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$0.58

Value

$15.6

PnL

+$15.02

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.3

Value

$4.35

PnL

+$2.05

Record

54%

6424-5410 (11834)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$0.99

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.69

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.53

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$1.45

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 87%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.6%

13.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$584.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

684.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.