Dewa United vs. Persija Jakarta: O/U 2.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$320.77

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 99.5¢

+58% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$819.62

Total Shares1,199

Combined PnL+$340.17

Over6 traders

Total Value$536.14

Total Shares878

Combined PnL-$19.4

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 29.3¢	$281.74	$525.76	+$244.02	59% 45810-32163 (77973)
SA Saber-greed	Overavg 75¢	$328.72	$238.87	-$89.85	59% 2554-1782 (4336)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 52.4¢	$159.89	$219.76	+$59.87	49% 7958-8291 (16249)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 45.3¢	$133.4	$175.17	+$41.77	50% 33395-32964 (66359)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 35.8¢	$64.3	$118.69	+$54.39	50% 25095-24835 (49930)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Overavg 41.3¢	$32.19	$53.41	+$21.22	47% 4567-5072 (9639)
RO Rocko33<$100	Overavg 58.5¢	$25.75	$14.96	-$10.79	63% 1111-641 (1752)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 54.5¢	$4.64	$4.9	+$0.26	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 56¢	$4.35	$4.23	-$0.12	49% 19156-19549 (38705)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$281.74

Value

$525.76

PnL

+$244.02

Record

59%

45810-32163 (77973)

Saber-greed

Over

Invested

$328.72

Value

$238.87

PnL

-$89.85

Record

59%

2554-1782 (4336)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$159.89

Value

$219.76

PnL

+$59.87

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$133.4

Value

$175.17

PnL

+$41.77

Record

50%

33395-32964 (66359)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$64.3

Value

$118.69

PnL

+$54.39

Record

50%

25095-24835 (49930)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Over

Invested

$32.19

Value

$53.41

PnL

+$21.22

Record

47%

4567-5072 (9639)

Rocko33<$100

Over

Invested

$25.75

Value

$14.96

PnL

-$10.79

Record

63%

1111-641 (1752)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$4.64

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.23

PnL

-$0.12

Record

49%

19156-19549 (38705)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.