Arema FC vs. Bali United: O/U 2.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$62.66

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 100¢

+104% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,555

Combined PnL+$239.93

Under3 traders

Total Value$405

Total Shares1,177

Combined PnL-$177.27

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 49¢	$755.09	$993.94	+$238.85	54% 56568-48734 (105302)
SA Saber-greedCTR	Underavg 51¢	$532.96	$370.98	-$161.98	59% 2554-1781 (4335)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 35.1¢	$41.11	$28.69	-$12.42	50% 25065-24808 (49873)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 42.1¢	$8.6	$9.69	+$1.09	49% 7902-8215 (16117)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 54.7¢	$8.2	$5.32	-$2.88	47% 4556-5064 (9620)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 67¢	$1.34	$1.33	-$0.01	53% 4546-4095 (8641)

RN1

Over

Invested

$755.09

Value

$993.94

PnL

+$238.85

Record

54%

56568-48734 (105302)

Saber-greedCTR

Under

Invested

$532.96

Value

$370.98

PnL

-$161.98

Record

59%

2554-1781 (4335)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.11

Value

$28.69

PnL

-$12.42

Record

50%

25065-24808 (49873)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$8.6

Value

$9.69

PnL

+$1.09

Record

49%

7902-8215 (16117)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.2

Value

$5.32

PnL

-$2.88

Record

47%

4556-5064 (9620)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$1.34

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

4546-4095 (8641)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.