Will Bali United win on 2026-10-31?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$536.95

Smart Money Entry

87.8¢ → 99.5¢

+13% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,206

Combined PnL-$296.06

No6 traders

Total Value$411.02

Total Shares2,505

Combined PnL-$240.89

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 87.8¢	$2.4K	$2.1K	-$295.88	50% 25065-24808 (49873)
SA Saber-greedCTR	Noavg 59¢	$288.92	$232.61	-$56.32	59% 2554-1781 (4335)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$96.26	$84.68	-$11.59	58% 41850-30387 (72237)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$72.8	$70.1	-$2.7	49% 19146-19539 (38685)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 10.8¢	$182.45	$16.83	-$165.62	50% 33354-32918 (66272)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$5.81	$5.64	-$0.17	49% 7902-8215 (16117)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$10.1	$5.5	-$4.6	54% 6276-5317 (11593)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$1.38	$1.31	-$0.07	53% 4546-4095 (8641)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$2,402.25

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$295.88

Record

50%

25065-24808 (49873)

Saber-greedCTR

Invested

$288.92

Value

$232.61

PnL

-$56.32

Record

59%

2554-1781 (4335)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$96.26

Value

$84.68

PnL

-$11.59

Record

58%

41850-30387 (72237)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$72.8

Value

$70.1

PnL

-$2.7

Record

49%

19146-19539 (38685)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$182.45

Value

$16.83

PnL

-$165.62

Record

50%

33354-32918 (66272)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.81

Value

$5.64

PnL

-$0.17

Record

49%

7902-8215 (16117)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$10.1

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$4.6

Record

54%

6276-5317 (11593)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.31

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

4546-4095 (8641)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.