Will Arema FC win on 2026-10-31?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 99¢ · $428 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$428.14
$63.65
75.8¢ → 99.3¢
+31% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 68.6¢ | $172.67 | $242.42 | +$69.75 | 50% 25065-24808 (49873) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 98.7¢ | $115.5 | $104.63 | -$10.87 | 50% 33354-32918 (66272) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 69.8¢ | $59.35 | $64.6 | +$5.25 | 58% 41850-30387 (72237) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $7.9 | $8.7 | +$0.8 | 58% 28670-21162 (49832) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $6.4 | $5 | -$1.4 | 54% 6276-5317 (11593) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $1.05 | $1.16 | +$0.11 | 49% 7902-8215 (16117) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $1.04 | $0.96 | -$0.08 | 53% 4546-4095 (8641) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.58 | $0.66 | +$0.08 | 54% 56568-48734 (105302) |
Invested
$172.67
Value
$242.42
PnL
+$69.75
Record
50%
25065-24808 (49873)
Invested
$115.5
Value
$104.63
PnL
-$10.87
Record
50%
33354-32918 (66272)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$59.35
Value
$64.6
PnL
+$5.25
Record
58%
41850-30387 (72237)
Invested
$7.9
Value
$8.7
PnL
+$0.8
Record
58%
28670-21162 (49832)
Invested
$6.4
Value
$5
PnL
-$1.4
Record
54%
6276-5317 (11593)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.16
PnL
+$0.11
Record
49%
7902-8215 (16117)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$0.96
PnL
-$0.08
Record
53%
4546-4095 (8641)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.58
Value
$0.66
PnL
+$0.08
Record
54%
56568-48734 (105302)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.