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DownDown
ohioismCTR<$100UpUp
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Up
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Up 75%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$80.07
Combined PnL
-$22.38
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down1 trader
Total Value$10.59
Total Shares11
Combined PnL-$13.98
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares70
Combined PnL-$8.4
Down — 25%Up — 75%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 89.6¢ | $80.9 | $69.48 | -$11.42 | 51% 1741-1694 (3435) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24.5¢ | $18.62 | — | -$18.62 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 89.6¢ | $62.28 | $69.48 | +$7.2 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $27.14 | $10.59 | -$13.98 | 60% 2327-1560 (3887) |
ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 12¢ | $1.2 | — | -$1.2 | 48% 1250-1346 (2596) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $2.2 | — | -$2.2 | 46% 1227-1428 (2655) |
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $5 | — | -$5 | 44% 1249-1571 (2820) |
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100Invested
$80.9
Value
$69.48
PnL
-$11.42
Record
51%
1741-1694 (3435)
Both legs:
Up$18.6224.5¢-$18.62
Down$62.2889.6¢+$7.2
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$27.14
Value
$10.59
PnL
-$13.98
Record
60%
2327-1560 (3887)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$1.2
Value
—
PnL
-$1.2
Record
48%
1250-1346 (2596)
0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100Invested
$2.2
Value
—
PnL
-$2.2
Record
46%
1227-1428 (2655)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$5
Value
—
PnL
-$5
Record
44%
1249-1571 (2820)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x4eceb36e...dcc4e1
Slug
hype-updown-15m-1794492900