Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 100¢ · $106 held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 100%

Total Value

$105.95

Combined PnL

$70.23

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$105.95

Total Shares127

Combined PnL+$70.23

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 26¢	$24.22	$75.17	+$50.96	—
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 21.4¢	$5.54	$12.93	+$7.4	—
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 14¢	$1.86	$10.34	+$8.48	—
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 24.5¢	$2.45	$5	+$2.55	—
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 33¢	$1.65	$2.5	+$0.85	—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$24.22

Value

$75.17

PnL

+$50.96

Record

—

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$5.54

Value

$12.93

PnL

+$7.4

Record

—

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$1.86

Value

$10.34

PnL

+$8.48

Record

—

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$2.45

Value

PnL

+$2.55

Record

—

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$1.65

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.85

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.