Will Debreceni VSC win on 2026-11-01?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 57¢ · $264 held · ended Nov 1

Yes57¢No43¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$264.21

Combined PnL

$63.07

Smart Money Entry

32.3¢ → 57¢

+77% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$259.65

Total Shares412

Combined PnL+$61.1

No1 trader

Total Value$4.56

Total Shares11

Combined PnL+$1.96

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 32¢	$66.56	$131.04	-$1.04	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 32¢	$64	$126	+$62	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 43.5¢	$2.59	$4.56	+$1.96	54% 6424-5410 (11834)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 59.5¢	$2.46	$2.61	+$0.14	53% 5610-5034 (10644)

LeLynxMalynx

Yes

Invested

$66.56

Value

$131.04

PnL

-$1.04

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$64

Value

$126

PnL

+$62

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$2.59

Value

$4.56

PnL

+$1.96

Record

54%

6424-5410 (11834)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.46

Value

$2.61

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.