Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (86%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Vasas FC win on 2026-10-31?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 14¢ · $652 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 20%
1 arb excluded
$651.52
$33.99
Research grade
AvoidNo at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 67¢ | $268 | $276 | +$8 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 69.4¢ | $135.39 | $164.78 | +$29.39 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Yesavg 48.8¢ | $114.68 | $155.83 | +$41.16 | 54% 56681-48879 (105560) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 48.8¢ | $58.5 | $101.4 | +$42.9 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 16¢ | $56.18 | $54.43 | -$1.74 | |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $36.67 | $25.96 | -$10.71 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $18.39 | $25.19 | +$6.79 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $3.25 | $3.77 | +$0.52 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$268
Value
$276
PnL
+$8
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$135.39
Value
$164.78
PnL
+$29.39
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$114.68
Value
$155.83
PnL
+$41.16
Record
54%
56681-48879 (105560)
Both legs:
Invested
$36.67
Value
$25.96
PnL
-$10.71
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Invested
$18.39
Value
$25.19
PnL
+$6.79
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.25
Value
$3.77
PnL
+$0.52
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.