Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (87%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
NK Slaven Belupo vs. NK Istra 1961: O/U 2.5
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (13%) · Over at 14¢ · $408 held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 13%
$407.94
-$232.43
Research grade
AvoidOver at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Under 87%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 66.3¢ | $126.62 | $161.31 | +$34.69 | 54% 56326-48479 (104805) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 49.8¢ | $419 | $130.49 | -$288.51 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $41 | $57 | +$0.5 | 53% 15882-14070 (29952) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 51.1¢ | $21.46 | $35.49 | +$14.03 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $6.71 | $9.33 | +$2.62 | 58% 28421-20980 (49401) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 53.3¢ | $3.23 | $5.12 | +$1.89 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $2.9 | $4.81 | +$1.91 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 76¢ | $3.96 | $4.4 | +$0.44 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
RN1Invested
$126.62
Value
$161.31
PnL
+$34.69
Record
54%
56326-48479 (104805)
Invested
$419
Value
$130.49
PnL
-$288.51
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$41
Value
$57
PnL
+$0.5
Record
53%
15882-14070 (29952)
Invested
$21.46
Value
$35.49
PnL
+$14.03
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$6.71
Value
$9.33
PnL
+$2.62
Record
58%
28421-20980 (49401)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.23
Value
$5.12
PnL
+$1.89
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$4.81
PnL
+$1.91
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
Invested
$3.96
Value
$4.4
PnL
+$0.44
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.