Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (57%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
NK Rudeš vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb: O/U 3.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 43¢ · $954 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 83%
$953.57
-$9.15
44.6¢ → 43¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $416.36 | $397.85 | -$18.5 | 49% 7958-8291 (16249) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Overavg 43.6¢ | $140.97 | $161.5 | +$20.53 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | Overavg 44¢ | $143.42 | $140.16 | -$3.26 | 47% 2505-2803 (5308) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 45¢ | $139.8 | $129 | -$6.13 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 52¢ | $106.16 | $102.08 | -$4.08 | 49% 19156-19549 (38705) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $20.69 | $22.99 | +$2.3 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
Invested
$416.36
Value
$397.85
PnL
-$18.5
Record
49%
7958-8291 (16249)
Invested
$140.97
Value
$161.5
PnL
+$20.53
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
Invested
$143.42
Value
$140.16
PnL
-$3.26
Record
47%
2505-2803 (5308)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$139.8
Value
$129
PnL
-$6.13
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
Invested
$106.16
Value
$102.08
PnL
-$4.08
Record
49%
19156-19549 (38705)
Invested
$20.69
Value
$22.99
PnL
+$2.3
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.