Will NK Varaždin win on 2026-11-01?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 84¢ · $19 held · ended Nov 1

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$19.14

Combined PnL

$1.05

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$14.58

Total Shares17

Combined PnL-$0.07

Yes2 traders

Total Value$4.55

Total Shares42

Combined PnL+$1.12

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 82¢	$7.78	$7.97	+$0.19	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 87.3¢	$6.87	$6.61	-$0.26	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$1.03	$4.12	+$3.09	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$2.4	$0.43	-$1.97	53% 16119-14285 (30404)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$7.78

Value

$7.97

PnL

+$0.19

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$6.87

Value

$6.61

PnL

-$0.26

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$4.12

PnL

+$3.09

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$1.97

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.