Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will HNK Rijeka win on 2026-11-01?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 44¢ · $729 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$728.5
-$0.13
44¢ → 44¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Noavg 44¢ | $514.34 | $514.34 | +$0 | 51% 1710-1674 (3384) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 44.1¢ | $203.94 | $203.61 | -$0.33 | 59% 46853-33124 (79977) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $6.15 | $6.15 | +$0 | 53% 16110-14274 (30384) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $9.8 | $4.4 | +$0.2 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
us391CTRInvested
$514.34
Value
$514.34
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1710-1674 (3384)
Invested
$203.94
Value
$203.61
PnL
-$0.33
Record
59%
46853-33124 (79977)
Invested
$6.15
Value
$6.15
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
16110-14274 (30384)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$9.8
Value
$4.4
PnL
+$0.2
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.