Will NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win on 2026-11-01?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 95¢ · $584 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$584.42
$66.37
67.1¢ → 95.3¢
+42% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 62.1¢ | $261.74 | $298.01 | +$87.45 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $79.29 | $84.4 | -$3.2 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 89.5¢ | $77.27 | $78.65 | +$1.38 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 31.8¢ | $173.77 | $75.13 | -$98.64 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 31.8¢ | $149.77 | $52.94 | -$96.83 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 96¢ | $24 | $22.19 | -$1.81 | |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $28.48 | $22.73 | -$5.75 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $11.4 | $14.57 | +$3.17 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.3¢ | $21 | $8.19 | -$12.81 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $6.6 | $2.73 | -$3.87 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$261.74
Value
$298.01
PnL
+$87.45
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
Invested
$79.29
Value
$84.4
PnL
-$3.2
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
Invested
$77.27
Value
$78.65
PnL
+$1.38
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
Invested
$173.77
Value
$75.13
PnL
-$98.64
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Both legs:
RN1<$100Invested
$28.48
Value
$22.73
PnL
-$5.75
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$11.4
Value
$14.57
PnL
+$3.17
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
Invested
$21
Value
$8.19
PnL
-$12.81
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$2.73
PnL
-$3.87
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.