Will HNK Rijeka win on 2026-10-27?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 87¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.7K
$227.86
86¢ → 87¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 84¢ | $1.5K | $1.7K | +$221.97 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $575.15 | $527.72 | -$47.44 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 83¢ | $308.87 | $327.17 | +$18.3 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 16¢ | $266.28 | $200.54 | -$65.74 | |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 97¢ | $332.76 | $334.47 | +$1.71 | 50% 32601-32144 (64745) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 84.1¢ | $59.71 | $60.35 | +$0.64 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $20.13 | $23.39 | +$3.25 | 53% 15683-13856 (29539) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $18.03 | $18.27 | +$0.24 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 84.4¢ | $12.7 | $12.79 | +$0.09 | 49% 18415-18835 (37250) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.3¢ | $2 | $1.95 | -$0.05 | 54% 6002-5094 (11096) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $0.15 | $0.16 | +$0.01 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
RN1Invested
$1,479.79
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$221.97
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
Invested
$575.15
Value
$527.72
PnL
-$47.44
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Both legs:
Invested
$332.76
Value
$334.47
PnL
+$1.71
Record
50%
32601-32144 (64745)
Invested
$59.71
Value
$60.35
PnL
+$0.64
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Invested
$20.13
Value
$23.39
PnL
+$3.25
Record
53%
15683-13856 (29539)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$18.03
Value
$18.27
PnL
+$0.24
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
Invested
$12.7
Value
$12.79
PnL
+$0.09
Record
49%
18415-18835 (37250)
Invested
$2
Value
$1.95
PnL
-$0.05
Record
54%
6002-5094 (11096)
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.16
PnL
+$0.01
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.