Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2026-10-27?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 43¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
$110.64
74.9¢ → 42.5¢
-43% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 75.4¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$141.4 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Yesavg 83.9¢ | $1.7K | $1.2K | -$460.6 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 83.9¢ | $946.57 | $953.34 | +$6.77 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 40.3¢ | $759.65 | $292.28 | -$467.37 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $53.54 | $54.39 | +$1.27 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 42.5¢ | $31.34 | $43.85 | +$12.5 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 40.4¢ | $79.1 | $38.05 | -$41.05 | 54% 6002-5094 (11096) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 75.8¢ | $8.06 | $6.41 | -$1.65 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 61.9¢ | $213.59 | $3.05 | -$2.62 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 69¢ | $2.74 | $2.54 | -$0.2 | 60% 9116-6042 (15158) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 64¢ | $1 | $1.98 | +$0.98 | 53% 15683-13856 (29539) |
RN1CTRInvested
$1,507.3
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$141.4
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
Invested
$1,706.21
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$460.6
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Both legs:
Invested
$53.54
Value
$54.39
PnL
+$1.27
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Invested
$31.34
Value
$43.85
PnL
+$12.5
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$79.1
Value
$38.05
PnL
-$41.05
Record
54%
6002-5094 (11096)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.06
Value
$6.41
PnL
-$1.65
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$213.59
Value
$3.05
PnL
-$2.62
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$2.74
Value
$2.54
PnL
-$0.2
Record
60%
9116-6042 (15158)
Invested
$1
Value
$1.98
PnL
+$0.98
Record
53%
15683-13856 (29539)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.