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Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q4 2026
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Mar 1, 2027
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Consensus Traders
0
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
$0
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes28%
No73%
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance29.3%
27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$241.12
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
341.1
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0xc439ddda...593b56
Slug
how-many-tesla-deliveries-in-q4-2026-450k-to-475k