Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Houthis capture Taiz city by October 31?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 24¢ · $182 held · ends Nov 1

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$181.98

Combined PnL

$1.53

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$106.38

Total Shares1,934

Combined PnL+$8.68

No1 trader

Total Value$75.6

Total Shares100

Combined PnL-$7.15

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR Arman2CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$61.4	$93.18	+$31.78	57% 311-233 (544)
Relaccsed<$100	Noavg 94¢	$82.75	$75.6	-$7.15	56% 1176-940 (2116)
BigRabbitCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$8.9	$11	+$2.1	40% 699-1042 (1741)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 27.4¢	$127.4	$2.2	-$25.2	36% 14340-25707 (40047)

Arman2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.4

Value

$93.18

PnL

+$31.78

Record

57%

311-233 (544)

Relaccsed<$100

Invested

$82.75

Value

$75.6

PnL

-$7.15

Record

56%

1176-940 (2116)

BigRabbitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.9

Value

$11

PnL

+$2.1

Record

40%

699-1042 (1741)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$127.4

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$25.2

Record

36%

14340-25707 (40047)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.3%

24.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$279.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

379.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.