Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on October 31?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 1.1¢ · $402 held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 40%
1 arb excluded
$401.76
-$87.54
27¢ → 1.1¢
-96% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 27.5¢ | $193.71 | $130.22 | -$63.49 | 50% 647-636 (1283) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 73.6¢ | $135.05 | $96.92 | -$5.83 | 20% 312-1280 (1592) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73.6¢ | $71.34 | $61.14 | -$16.52 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.9¢ | $25.09 | $35.78 | +$10.69 | |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $99.49 | $81.48 | -$20.06 | 55% 410-334 (744) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 69.7¢ | $78.16 | $71.98 | -$6.18 | 59% 1808-1259 (3067) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 75.6¢ | $17.98 | $12.66 | -$3.56 | 57% 13779-10552 (24331) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.9¢ | $2.74 | $8.49 | +$5.75 | 53% 6541-5757 (12298) |
Invested
$193.71
Value
$130.22
PnL
-$63.49
Record
50%
647-636 (1283)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$135.05
Value
$96.92
PnL
-$5.83
Record
20%
312-1280 (1592)
Both legs:
Invested
$99.49
Value
$81.48
PnL
-$20.06
Record
55%
410-334 (744)
Invested
$78.16
Value
$71.98
PnL
-$6.18
Record
59%
1808-1259 (3067)
Invested
$17.98
Value
$12.66
PnL
-$3.56
Record
57%
13779-10552 (24331)
Invested
$2.74
Value
$8.49
PnL
+$5.75
Record
53%
6541-5757 (12298)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.